After a few years marked by exceptional circumstances, the unknown for those looking to buy, sell or rent a property is what the evolution of the real estate market will be in 2024. An evolution that at first seems marked by some cooling of the market and interest rates that will not fall as much as many would like.
The real estate market in 2024: forecasts
This year, the real estate market continues a series of trends that marked notable changes in its evolution. On the one hand, changes that pointed the way towards the pre-pandemic situation and, on the other, derived from the political and economic situation worldwide.
Evolution of the Euribor
The benchmark index reached figures unknown since 2008. In the middle of the year, it broke the psychological barrier of 4%, although at the end of the year, it closed at 3.679%. Forecasts suggest that the Euribor could follow this path of moderation. However, it would remain well above 3% throughout the year.
Changes in mortgages
With interest rates that rose to 4.5% and a rising Euribor, fixed and mixed mortgages took centre stage. The forecasts for the real estate market in 2024 do not point to a change in trend in this regard, especially if one considers that there are no clear indications that the European Central Bank will lower interest rates significantly in 2024.
Real estate slowdown
In 2023, home sales continued to grow, but in a more moderate way. In October 2023, there was a monthly increase of 4.1%. Nevertheless, in year-on-year figures, the decrease was more than 11%. Besides, there is more than a 22% decrease in the annual rate of the number of mortgages, according to the National Institute of Statistics.
Investment in housing also moderated; investors seem to be waiting for changes in the economic situation and are betting on other types of real estate assets. All of them are symptoms of a market cooling that could last into 2024.
Consolidation of foreign demand for Spanish housing
The housing demand by foreigners has become one of the pillars of the real estate market. In fact, in the first half of 2023, they carried out one in five purchase and sale operations. It is a trend that seems consolidated. Although the growth of this demand moderated, everything seems to indicate that it will continue to be high in 2024.
In 2023,housing prices rose, although their growth moderated compared to previous periods. The forecasts for the real estate market in 2024 suggest that this upward trend will continue. Nonetheless, it'll be very contained due to a decrease in demand.
Only in stressed areas will prices rise, while in other areas of lower demand, they will remain stable or could fall.
Renting a home was more difficult in 2023 due to the lack of supply and rising prices. Given that, nothing indicates that the situation will change. The forecasts are there will not be significant changes in this sense in the rental market. In exchange, we'll see the consolidation of a trend: shared housing.
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