The latest meeting of the European Central Bank seems to have marked a turning point. After ten consecutive increases in the money price in just over a year, they have decided to freeze it. Interest rates remain at 4.5%, meaning a break for the economy and, obviously, for the real estate sector.
Now, we still have to see what will happen to the reference index. Although the Euribor 2024 forecasts point to a slight reduction rather than containment.
Evolution and Forecasts of the Euribor 2024
The moderation of prices in the Eurozone is what has led the ECB to make the decision not to raise interest rates further. Forecasts suggest that the money price will begin to fall in April 2024. And if the economic situation improves, the monetary authority could lower interest rates again in June and September.
An inflation and interest rate reduction would inevitably affect the Euribor forecasts for next year. The reference index has not stopped rising since the end of 2021 and has gone from negative figures to exceeding 4%.
Although the October average marks a slight increase compared to the previous month, the Euribor seems to have begun a cycle change. After peaking at the end of September, when it reached 4.228%, October has been a month of decline, ending at around 4%. All of this is a relief for those who have a mortgage and a small incentive for those who are thinking about purchasing a home.
Will the Euribor go down in 2024?
The Euribor 2024 forecasts suggest this downward trend will continue. However, its levels would be far from those negative figures it had a couple of years ago. In any case, the uncertainty that the markets are still experiencing makes it difficult to predict the evolution of the reference index.
If the most optimistic forecasts become true, the estimated value of the Euribor rate at the end of 2024 would be around 2.8%. Meanwhile, in 2025, it would be slightly above 3%. Other analyses are not so optimistic and propose predictions of approximately 3.7% at the end of the year and 3.4% for the following year.
However, the evolution of interest rates will depend on the inflation. The goal is to reach 2%, and that horizon still seems distant. Therefore, we will have to wait for the upcoming decisions of the ECB to see if the Euribor settles on this downward path.
Good time to look for a house
Any reduction in the price of money is good news for those who already have a mortgage and also for those looking to buy a property. With the prospect of a decrease in interest rates, it is a good time to start that search.
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