At its last meeting in February, the ECB decided to raise interest rates again, and it will be the fifth in less than a year. In twelve months, the reference index for mortgages has gone from being negative to reaching 3%. And a rise in the Euribor in 2023 is not ruled out, along with more measures aimed at returning inflation to around 2%.
In fact, forecasts point to a new rise in the Euribor in 2023, reaching rates unknown since 2008. If in January 2022, it stood at -0.477, by the end of 2023, it could touch 4%.
The unstoppable rise of Euribor has put many families with variable-interest mortgage loans against the ropes. The reference index has gone from negative to close to 3% in a few months. To avoid the burden this entails for the most vulnerable families, the Government of Spain has approved a package of mortgage aid.
These measures, which will benefit close to a million households according to official forecasts, will come into force at the beginning of 2023. Although these actions were agreed with the banks, it is up to them to adhere to the so-called Code of Good Practice.
The economic situation points to a rise in interest rates. Europe has largely recovered the GDP lost due to the pandemic; however, inflation has skyrocketed. In February, the CPI -Consumer Price Index- in Spain experienced an upward variation concerning the previous twelve months of more than 7%, a figure that wasn't that high for decades.
For its part, the US Federal Reserve already predicted a rise in interest rates at the beginning of the year, and the president of the ECB recently left the door open to it. The international outlook added to the rise in electricity, gas and fuel pricing could be the final push that leads to the decision.
The bursting of the housing bubble during the last crisis has transformed the real estate market in countries that suffered the heaviest price of housing. In the years prior to the Great Recession, there was a relaxation of the financial conditions that allowed young people with low wages to mortgage in the very long term with the risk that this entails. The bursting of the bubble has had serious economic consequences that have changed the behaviour of banks and families. Now, the composition of mortgaged homes has changed: the profile is a person over 40 years old and has a high level of income. This transformation of the mortgaged has also occurred in countries that did not suffer the bubble, but for different reasons.
The number of court-ordered home evictions for non-payment of mortgages, rent or other legal reasons reached 67,189 last year, according to judicial statistics released on Friday.
The number of open cases – pending eviction requests – stood at 82,860, which is 9.8 percent fewer than the previous year, said the General Council of Judiciary (CGPJ) legal watchdog in its annual report.
Of the total number, 38 percent were due to non-payment of mortgages while 57 percent were for non-payment of rent. Another four percent were for other causes. The figures reflect an average of around 184 evictions per day in 2013.
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